Gen Z Protests and Policy Failure: Lessons from Kenya’s Finance Bill 2024

Written by Shamim Ibrahim

Edited by Evan Burgess

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‘I concede.’ With these defeated words, Kenya’s President William Ruto yielded to public dissent and withdrew a contentious finance bill after a month of intense, youth-driven protests against it. Aimed at reducing the nation’s soaring debt through higher taxes, the Finance Bill 2024 became a flashpoint, igniting widespread activism domestically and among Kenyans in France, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Despite the government's insistence on fiscal reform, thousands mobilised, resulting in a stormed parliament, over 200 injuries, and at least 22 tragic fatalities (Muiga, 2024). Facing mounting pressure, President Ruto rolled back the reforms—an unprecedented move that underscores the profound impact of public resistance on policy outcomes. This essay examines that interplay between public dissent and policy failure, exploring the critical role of public participation in the formulation of tax policies.

To grasp the rationale behind the Finance Bill and the resulting public outcry, it is crucial to consider Kenya's fiscal and economic landscape. As the strongest economy in East Africa, Kenya recorded a real GDP growth rate of 4.7% in 2024, driven largely by substantial government borrowing and spending (World Bank). However, this growth has come at a cost: the country’s fiscal debt has ballooned to $82 billion, amounting to 68% of GDP—well above the 55% threshold recommended by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (Muiga, 2024). When President Ruto assumed office three years ago, he inherited a government burdened by immense debt accrued through ambitious infrastructure investments. Parliament has raised the debt ceiling twice within three years to manage budget deficits, yet persistent high inflation and a depreciated Kenyan shilling—down 22% against the U.S. dollar since 2022—have compounded economic woes (Mbugua, 2024). Facing pressure from international lenders like the IMF, which have urged fiscal discipline and enhanced revenue generation, the government sought to expand its tax base. This was the context for the Finance Bill, which proposed sweeping tax reforms aimed at raising $2.7 billion in additional revenue to address the debt crisis.

The bill increased the Value-Added Tax on essential items like fuel, bread, and menstrual products and introduced a new 1.5% housing levy intended to fund affordable housing projects. It also maintained a 15% excise tax on mobile money transfers and digital payment services. These regressive taxes, often labelled ‘tax on the poor’, were seen as disproportionately impacting the wananchi (Swahili for ‘common citizens’) who are already dealing with high unemployment and shrinking real wages. The inequitable impact, coupled with a pervasive mistrust of the government’s ability to manage funds transparently due to previous corruption scandals, mobilised Kenya’s youth into a powerful wave of political action. Generation Z spearheaded the protests, leveraging their digital fluency to coordinate and amplify their dissent online. Hashtags like #RejectFinanceBill2024 went viral across social media and messaging platforms, transforming digital spaces into hubs of resistance. This new form of decentralised, grassroots activism marked a departure from leadership-driven and ethnically segmented demonstrations traditional in Kenya. By decentralising protest organisation, digital platforms made it challenging for the government to control or negotiate, as there were no prominent figures representing the movement. Authorities responded with excessive force, using tear gas and water cannons on protestors, escalating mistrust in the government. This turned into outrage when Rex Masai, a 29-year-old protester, was shot and killed with live ammunition by a police officer (Nation Africa, 2024). The anger culminated in protesters storming and damaging the parliament—one of the most direct assaults on the Kenyan government in decades.

What lessons can be drawn from this episode? Primarily, the government’s inability to implement the bill revealed a significant disconnect between policy making and public sentiment. To enact fiscal reforms successfully, it is crucial to integrate public participation into the policy development process, giving Kenyans agency in shaping taxation laws. This could be achieved through structured public deliberation sessions before introducing new tax legislation, ensuring engagement with a diverse range of stakeholders across socio economic classes, age groups, and gender lines (Magale & Schmidt, 2024). Recognising the digital proficiency of younger generations, the government should harness the power of social media platforms as both a barometer of public opinion and a medium for interactive engagement. Social media can serve as a vital tool for disseminating policy proposals and gathering real-time feedback from citizens. Initiatives such as dedicated hashtags and online forums can foster more transparent communication and provide touchpoints between political elites and the wananchi. By leveraging these platforms, the government can improve transparency, build trust, and better formulate and implement tax policies.

Citizens’ perceptions of the state’s legitimacy and the fairness of tax laws have a profound impact on fiscal compliance and obedience (Alm & Martinez-Vazquez, 2007; Feld & Frey, 2002; Magale & Schmidt, 2024). The legitimacy of a government to tax its people is not only hinged on its enforcement capabilities but also its capacity to listen and build trust with its citizens. In Kenya, the widespread anti-tax sentiment is deeply rooted in a lack of trust, fuelled by views of governmental corruption. The Finance Bill protests exemplify the outcomes of a failed social contract (Prichard, 2019; Timmons, 2005). To resolve the policy issue, the Kenyan government must actively involve its taxpayers in the development of tax policies, reinforcing a principle akin to “no taxation without representation.” With these policy adjustments, the state can renew its social contract with the Kenyan people ensuring inclusive, transparent, and accountable governance.

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